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IUCN Red List warning: Fossil fuel expansion threatens Coral Triangle reefs as Super El Niño intensifies

Energy Shift Southeast Asia calls for urgent protection of Palawan, Bali, Tun Mustapha Park and Tubbataha Reefs from overlapping offshore service contracts and escalating climate threats

Manila, Philippines — The IUCN’s first global Red List of Ecosystems assessment of coral reefs found that 122 of 127 assessed coral reef ecosystems, or 96 percent, are critically endangered, facing an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075. 

The latest findings of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) have delivered a bleak warning for the future of the world’s coral reefs, strengthening calls to protect critical marine ecosystems, such as the Coral Triangle, from fossil fuel expansion as a powerful El Niño threatens to intensify ocean heat stress.

The assessment identifies ocean warming and increasingly frequent marine heatwaves as the most consistent drivers of reef decline. A separate IUCN assessment found that 44 percent of assessed reef-building coral species are threatened with extinction. These findings underscore the urgency of protecting the remaining resilience of the world’s oceans.

Energy Shift Southeast Asia warned that the findings carry significance for the Coral Triangle, one of the planet’s richest marine biodiversity regions, where coastal communities depend on healthy reefs for food, livelihoods, tourism and protection against coastal hazards.

“The IUCN findings make clear that the crisis facing coral reefs is no longer a distant possibility, but a warning that ASEAN must act on now. Southeast Asian states must clear a pathway to address emergent threats to the region and not allow fossil fuel expansion to threaten the very ecosystems that sustain our communities,” said Anj Dacanay, lead campaigner of Energy Shift Southeast Asia.

Marine protected areas must not become frontiers for fossil fuel expansion

Across the region, overlapping offshore petroleum service contracts and proposed extractive activities near marine protected areas raise serious concerns about the effectiveness of existing conservation commitments. Where oil and gas contract areas overlap with, or threaten the ecological integrity of, protected and highly sensitive marine habitats, governments must urgently disclose the extent of these overlaps and prevent activities that could undermine conservation objectives.

Energy Shift Southeast Asia highlighted Palawan in the Philippines, Bali in Indonesia, Tun Mustapha Park in Sabah, Malaysia, and Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park in the Philippines as important locations in the wider regional debate on marine conservation, fossil fuel expansion and climate resilience.

In Palawan, offshore oil and gas exploration and development raise concerns about potential impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and the ecological connections between coastal habitats and offshore waters. The province’s marine ecosystems, including the UNESCO-listed Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park, are vital to biodiversity conservation and the livelihoods of communities throughout the region.

In Bali, marine ecosystems and coastal livelihoods face growing climate pressures alongside the need to scrutinize aggressive energy infrastructure growth. In Sabah, Tun Mustapha Park protects an extensive and ecologically important marine landscape whose biodiversity and community benefits depend on effective management and enforcement.

Tubbataha, meanwhile, represents the global importance of protecting exceptionally valuable reef ecosystems from avoidable environmental risks. Its protected status must be matched by effective safeguards against pollution, destructive activities and threats arising from the broader expansion of offshore extraction.

Energy Shift Southeast Asia stressed that the precise location, status and boundaries of petroleum service contracts must be publicly verified against official marine protected area maps. Any confirmed overlap or credible risk to protected ecosystems should trigger transparent review, rigorous environmental assessment and precautionary action.

“Marine protected areas must mean real protection. Governments cannot draw boundaries around critical ecosystems on paper while allowing decisions elsewhere to expose those same ecosystems to additional risks. We need transparent contract maps, stronger safeguards and a clear commitment to keep new fossil fuel extraction away from biodiversity-critical marine areas,” Dacanay said.

Super El Niño raises the stakes for already vulnerable reefs

The IUCN findings arrive as the region confronts an intensifying El Niño. In its October 7 advisory, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that a strong to very strong El Niño was present in the tropical Pacific, with conditions expected to continue into the first half of 2027 and potentially peak before the end of 2026.

The developing event heightens concern for coral reefs already exposed to long-term ocean warming and marine heatwaves. When seawater temperatures remain unusually high, corals can bleach, lose the symbiotic algae that provide much of their energy, and die if stressful conditions persist. Repeated bleaching events can leave reefs with insufficient time to recover.

Although El Niño does not affect every location in the same way, its interaction with long-term climate change can intensify heat stress across vulnerable marine ecosystems. Local pressures—including pollution, habitat disturbance and overfishing—can further weaken reefs and reduce their ability to recover.

The IUCN assessment provides a particularly urgent warning: while 24 percent of assessed reef ecosystems were classified as Critically Endangered based on observed changes over the previous 50 years alone, the figure rises to 96 percent when projected future heat stress is included.

For the Coral Triangle and surrounding marine ecosystems, this means that reducing avoidable local pressures and rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions must go hand in hand. Governments cannot control the occurrence of El Niño, but they can prevent additional damage from poorly regulated industrial development and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

From biodiversity commitments to enforceable protection

Energy Shift Southeast Asia called on governments across Southeast Asia to translate biodiversity and climate commitments into concrete measures that protect marine ecosystems and the communities depending on them.

Dacanay emphasized that marine conservation cannot be separated from energy policy: “Every new fossil fuel project risks locking in emissions over the coming decades, precisely when science calls for rapid reductions to limit further warming and preserve the resilience of natural ecosystems.”

“Palawan, Bali, Tun Mustapha Park and Tubbataha are reminders of what is at stake. These are not simply areas on a map; they are living ecosystems that support biodiversity, food security, cultural heritage and the future of coastal communities. With the threat of Super El Niño and the accelerating climate crisis, governments must choose protection over further fossil fuel expansion,” Dacanay said.

“The IUCN warning must be a turning point. Protecting the Coral Triangle means confronting the pressures driving biodiversity loss, keeping dangerous extractive activities away from critical marine habitats and delivering a decisive shift to clean, renewable energy.”

Energy Shift Southeast Asia calls for immediate, science-based action to protect the region’s marine ecosystems before the window for recovery narrows further.

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